JYOTINT Sealed Forecasts

Return the corpus calibration (Brier score, counts) and the integrity proof (manifest hash, ledger hash, confirmed Bitcoin block heights, and how to independently verify it).

The deep-pass signature findings over the FULL corpus (graded + ungraded + excluded), cross-checked against the ledger at build time: the MECHANISM LEDGER (the failure class named at seal vs the realized anomaly, all 23 launch calls, GO calls included — the direction varies with the day), the WAR READ (the Russia-Ukraine corpus as one 8-chapter campaign read, PARTIALs owned in-line), the entity-level NAMED-BEFORE-THE-EVENT register, the TWO WARNINGS Crocus x Vaishno-Devi pairing (graded anterior…

Return JYOTINT's data-handling, PROVENANCE & governance posture — the answer to 'is this source safe to read / cite / ingest?'. Chain-of-custody is foregrounded: every record is SHA-256-sealed + Bitcoin-anchored before the event and independently recomputable (the provenance the proposed GSA AI data-safeguarding rule treats as first-class). Confirms JYOTINT is a US data source (Arizona LLC), ingests NO government / client / PII data, trains no models, and is OUT OF SCOPE of the GSA LLM-contracto…

Information Yield (IY) — how much a confirmed call should move a skeptic's belief, in BITS of surprise-if-true (log2 of the published 1-in-N prior, capped at 1-in-a-million; earned = surprise × verdict-credit). A base rate / consensus-follower scores ZERO bits by construction — the metric on which the 'a base rate ties the Brier' objection inverts. Returns the corpus summary (median ≈6.8 bits/call + %earned), the launch/intel/combined domain split, and the count. Pass an optional id for one call…

The corpus-level 'could this record be luck?' significance test, computed AGAINST the record: 92 graded calls clustered into 68 independent events (correlated calls share one event), strict scoring (one NEAR fails the whole event), luck-prior floored at a coin flip per event. Returns the exact binomial tail, the BREAK-EVEN floor (what a skeptic must grant per event to call it luck), the sensitivity band, the published clusters + failed events, the sittings exhibit (every 2+-call seal date — comp…

Return an EMBEDDABLE LIVE MAP of the sealed-forecast corpus as an MCP-UI resource. Clients that can render UI resources (mcp-ui) should display it inline — it is the actual interactive JYOTINT theater map (sealed forecasts plotted by region; each pin carries its verbatim claim, grade, sealed probability, and a click-through to the full sealed record so the user can verify and score it themselves). Use this when a user asks to see, visualize, or explore JYOTINT's forecasts on a map.

The grade-it-yourself kit: inputs to recompute the record's Brier (calibration), named-mechanism specificity, AND Information Yield under YOUR OWN verdicts — plus the one-step stress-test recipes (harsh-verdicts, externally-adjudicated-only, estimative-worst-case, …). Each call carries its verbatim claim/outcome, the operator's p + verdict to override, and the surprise_bits / 1-in-N inputs. A base rate scores 0 on specificity and 0 bits on IY. Pass an optional id for one call's row; omit for the…

The 'before-the-event' indications-and-warning / after-action timeline for a named event, by advisory id (e.g. 'LA-022') or slug (e.g. 'new-glenn-ng3', 'crocus'). A neutral chronology: the official/authoritative source named FIRST, then the dated, hash-anchored JYOTINT sealed call as one independently-verifiable entry, with what it does and does not establish. Use for 'what dated public warnings preceded [event]'. Omit id to list every available timeline.

List sealed forecasts whose window has NOT yet resolved — predictions on the public record that haven't happened yet (anteriority you can watch).

Search the JYOTINT sealed-forecast corpus (Bitcoin-anchored, dated-before-the-event predictions) by free text across id, title, and the verbatim sealed claim. Returns matching records with their grade, sealed probability, seal date, source artifact, and SHA-256 seal hash.