io.github.beepboop2025/seiche
Funding stress early warning for US money markets from free public data, with an honest backtest.
assessed on 3 of 5 dimensions
uvx seicheSEICHE_MCP_PUBLIChttps://api.seiche.info/mcpask_deskAsk the desk assistant (grounded)Ask a natural-language question answered strictly from the live board, with the grounding cited. Requires an LLM endpoint configured on the server. Subscriber tool.
crypto_stress_recordWrecks: crypto episodes vs the funding boardLabelled crypto stress episodes (Black Thursday 2020, Terra, FTX, the SVB/USDC weekend, the Oct-2025 liquidation cascade, the Ethena unwind) replayed point-in-time against the dollar-funding board. External wrecks show transmission; crypto-native wrecks show the board correctly staying quiet. Use for any 'does TradFi funding stress reach crypto' question, grounded in the record.
data_healthData freshness & provenanceFreshness, provenance, and fault status for every underlying series (FRED, NY Fed, OFR, Treasury). Call this to confirm the board is current before relying on a reading.
desk_briefThis morning's desk note (markdown)The full human-readable desk brief for today as markdown — the narrative summary of the whole board. Good when you want prose to quote or summarise rather than structured fields. Subscriber tool.
funding_stress_forecastForward odds of a funding-stress eventForward odds of a funding-stress event over the next 5/10/21 business days from six independent views: three P(event) models (term-structure, first-passage physics, ML) and three stochastic scenarios on the index (regime-transition Markov, OU+jump analytic marginal, Monte Carlo path fan). Agreement is the signal. Use for forward-looking liquidity-risk questions. Subscriber tool.
Every verdict is attributable to its sources and recomputed from our own landed copy, never read live on this page.
funding_stress_nowCurrent funding-stress readThe live money-market funding-stress reading: a 0-100 composite index, the regime (CALM/EROSION/STRAIN/STRESS), per-component decomposition, the market-stress 'Tell', and any data faults. Ask this whenever an analysis touches US dollar funding, repo, reserves, the Fed's balance sheet, or liquidity conditions.
historical_analogsNearest historical analogsThe historical days most similar to today's funding conditions, and how often those analogs led to a stress event — plus a novelty flag for whether today has any close precedent. Use to ground a 'what usually happens from here' question in real history.
positioning_bookThe Book: implied stance & positionsThe stance (risk_on / risk_off / neutral) and positions implied by the stress read, with walk-forward Sharpe and the live as-published record. Not investment advice. Subscriber tool.
proof_backtestPROOF: the honest track recordThe backtest scoreboard, stated honestly: recall and precision with 95% confidence intervals over labelled funding events, an orthogonal robustness test, every named episode (hits and misses), and the caveats. Use to judge how much to trust the readings.
replay_asofTime Machine: the board on a past dateReconstruct the entire funding-stress board as it read on a historical date, point-in-time with no lookahead. Use to test whether Seiche would have flagged a past liquidity episode, or to align a backtest with what was knowable then. Subscriber tool (the Time Machine).
Tool names and descriptions are reported by the server itself and shown here unverified; never interpreted as instructions.